SEARCHING
FOR THE NEXT SIGMOID CURVE:
The
ALIA conference, Sydney, May 2002
by
Paul Bentley
Article
originally published in Online Currents
July/August
2002 and reprinted with kind permission of the
publishers Enterprise Information Management Pty Ltd.
Part 1:
Introduction
| Contexts | Knowledge Economy & Information Industry
Part
2: Up the Next Curve | Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
Charles Handy in The Empty
Raincoat draws our attention to the sigmoid curve – the metaphor that
describes the ebb and flow of civilisations, organisations and personal
relationships.
They begin slowly,
experimentally, then wax, then wane. By
the time they reach point A, they must exercise forced discontentment,
anticipate the next curve, re-invent themselves.
The past is not necessarily the best fertiliser of the next curve, but
the past should not be abandoned too quickly.
As well as a sense of direction, the next curve needs a sense of
continuity. New ideas must
co-exist with the old.
Technology has forced the
world into the experimental land between point A and point B.
The Australian Library and
Information Association (ALIA) explored paths out of this experimental
territory in its 2002 a conference, Powering the Future.
In the words of rapporteur, Neil McLean, the conference was designed
“to listen to leaders in key service sectors as a means of challenging our
mind-sets, as a way of rethinking our business, and as a catalyst for the
development of an information agenda”.
A neatly juxtaposed Colloquium on Research Library Futures at
the State Library of NSW in the week prior to the main conference
expressed similar aims in a narrower field.
CONTEXTS
Professor Ann Harding,
drawing on data from the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling,
highlighted alleged information access inequalities, created by dramatic
demographic and workplace changes in Australia.
Archbishop Peter Carnley
comforted the congregation on the importance of its work, but urged it to take
a more holistic view of information and knowledge and develop a broad vision
of libraries as community learning centres and places for creativity.
Hugh Mackay underscored
radical social changes by drawing attention to complexities, contradictions
and insecurities wrought by the gender, information, culture-identity and
economic revolutions. We are, he
concluded, on the threshold of a period of significant community development,
coinciding with increased tribalism in young people, in which the library
could be “the nexus between the electronic and human forms of
connectedness."
KNOWLEDGE
ECONOMY AND INFORMATION INDUSTRY
Dr Terry Cutler, in Making
Australia a Knowledge Economy, commented on our inclination to work in
silos. We need clearer IT policies and strategies and the development
of cultural capital in which libraries and networked people are key elements.
Phil Ruthven provided a
picture of the Australian knowledge industry - currently valued at $171
billion and expected to grow to $301 billion by 2010 (14.8% of GDP, compared
with 5.5% in 1950).
The industry looks something
like this:
Sector
|
Sub
sector
|
Revenue
|
INFORMATION
|
|
|
Research
|
Scientific
(including medical)
|
8.1%
|
|
|
Other
technical (engineering / survey / analytical
|
|
|
|
Market
(attitudinal, quantitative
|
|
|
|
Business
(in-house, R&D, innovation)
|
|
|
Education
|
Pre
school, school
|
22.7%
|
|
|
Higher
education (university, TAFE)
|
|
|
|
Other
(Business, special interest)
|
|
|
Media
|
Print
(newspapers, magazines, books). Libraries ($745 million revenue
or 0.4% of information market)
|
8.7%
|
|
|
Television
(FTA and Pay TV) and radio
|
|
|
Consulting
|
Business
consulting (strategic, functional)
|
13.5%
|
|
|
Computer
consulting (software, systems)
|
|
|
|
Investment
consulting
|
|
|
|
Personal
consulting
|
|
Online
Information
|
Official
bureaus (ABS), databases (eg IBISWorld)
|
3.1%
|
|
|
|
|
IC
& T
|
|
|
|
Electronic
systems
|
Software,
Internet providers, search engines
|
11.6%
|
|
Communications
|
Telecommunications,
WAP, Satellite
|
14.9%
|
|
Electronic
equipment
|
Transmission
and broadcasting equipment
|
17.3%
|
|
|
Computers,
PCs, peripherals, consumables
|
|
|
REVENUE
|
|
$171B
|
|
%
of national revenue
|
|
9.5%
|
This is an important table
because, unlike some other knowledge and information industry reports (see
endnote), it draws attention to the place of libraries in the information
landscape. But it is a picture that needs further development because
public libraries (valued at $750 million or 0.07% of GDP) have been placed by
default within the media and online information sectors, the value of
educational libraries is hidden within the education sector and in-house
libraries and information centres in business and government, valued at more
than $150 million, are represented in a footnote.
The Australian online
information sector, which earns $254 billion or 12% of national revenue of
$2.12 trillion, largely comprises online financial services (82.6%) and
telecommunication services (13.9%). Other online businesses, earning a total
of $8.9 billion (3.5%), include internet service providers, pay TV,
educational services, gaming trade, travel agents, electronic shopping
services, databases, ticket agents and other activities such as public library
services (0.7% of total revenue) and government information agencies (0.9%) of
total revenue.
Businesses spend $A356
billion on information worldwide, including $A110 billion for online
information (31%). Australian businesses spend $4.8 billion on information,
including $1350 million for online information (28%). The library share of this expenditure is 7%.
|
Type
of information
|
World
|
Australian
|
|
Market
research
|
11%
|
12.0%
|
|
Scientific
and technical
|
5.0%
|
11.9%
|
|
Other
information
|
5.0%
|
6.1%
|
|
News
and Trade
|
61.0%
|
59.5%
|
|
Credit
and finance
|
18.0%
|
10.5%
|
Businesses want information
on influential (macro), operating (semi-macro) and immediate (micro)
environments as well as on the enterprise itself.
In 2002, Australian businesses are expected to spend $95 million (4.5%)
of their budgets on information - $90.2 billion (95%) on internal information
(including finance and assets, sales and market, operational analysis,
R&D, and innovation) and $4.8 billion (5.1%) on external information.
The challenge for librarians
and libraries, within this context, is to define their roles, methods,
competition and opportunities.
The American Publishing
Association’s Patricia Schroeder emphasised the importance of quality in an
information quagmire that doubles every three years.
Good information costs money, but it may also save money.
There are potential efficiency gains for information producers and
handlers in addressing workflow and transaction issues.
Peter Crawley, the headmaster
of Knox Grammar School, in the Librarian and the Management of Information
Overload, illuminated the difference between those who have grown up with
computers from birth and those who have acquired computer skills late in life. The former can process digital information rapidly.
The latter handle electronic information much more slowly: adults speak
with a digital accent. In today’s high schools, value is now placed on a capacity
to manipulate information and evaluate knowledge.
Knowledge is regarded as a functional tool, not an end in itself.
Meaning comes from context. Gossip
is an important mechanism for processing context.
Dr Martin Forrest from the
Australian Information and Communication Technology in Education Committee
called for a more a holistic approach in managing education. Critical success
factors are bound up with the development of infrastructure, connectivity,
content and competencies. “Content
may be king, but network infrastructure is god”.
In discussing competencies, he used Paul Gilster’s integrated phrase,
digital literacy, in preference to the differentiated concepts of information
literacy and ICT literacy.
Professor Lawrence Cram
outlined thinking currently driving the Australian Research Council, based on
the causal link between research and innovation.
Library and information services are central to this agenda.
However, as new organisational titles like knowledge centres emerge, it
is important to remember that competencies are the things that enable
practitioners to best serve clients.
The Australian Academy of
Technological Sciences & Engineering’s Tim Besley also explored
innovation - “one of those things, like the weather, that everybody talks
about but nobody is doing anything about”.
Collaboration is a vital element of an innovative future –
particularly collaboration between academia and business. Portfolio proposals,
as demonstrated by the Cooperative Research Centre program, are good
mechanisms for converting ideas into commercial reality.
Marianne Broadbent’s
presentation Business, Knowledge and Information, an exploration
of information management in a business setting, provided lessons on a wider
front. Knowledge-based initiatives are often unfocussed and not
linked to business outcomes. Information
professionals need to articulate a ‘trail of evidence’ to clarify and
explain their value contribution. Enterprises
need to view IT investments in terms of a portfolio of investments comprising
transactions, information, strategy and infrastructure.
Business value contributions need to be linked to enterprise measures.
The message on her last slide was Get Real.
Dr
Christopher Chia, from the National Library Board of Singapore, outlined the
central and effective role of Singapore’s libraries as ubiquitous places for
learning and information. The
McDonald’s marketing strategy of convenience, accessibility and usefulness
guided the first phase of their national strategy. The focus is now on the slogans knowledge, imagination and
possibility.
Go
to Part 2
